Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

This part of the market is moving tighter than the national market

By Chris McClure

Real estate, Primary market

The national story is not this market's story. Realtor.com reported pending sales down 4.1% year over year nationally, and Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Those numbers set a tough backdrop. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted pending sales up 48.3% in ZIP 36502 for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is not a preference. That is a measurable outcome that changes what a buyer or seller here should expect.

This is not a personality test. It is a supply and demand problem. Are you watching a market that is loosening, or are you sitting in one that is tightening? The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 2.7 months of supply in ZIP 36502 for the same period. The National Association of Realtors put the national supply at 4.9 months, its highest level in over ten years. Those two numbers are not close.

Where the market is tightest

ZIP 36527 is the tightest of the larger ZIP codes the Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked. Supply came in at 2.1 months for the three months ending July 31, 2026, down 1.7 months from the same period in 2025. Homes sold were up 27%. The median sale price reached $402,974, up 6.5% year over year. Days on market dropped 11 days shorter than a year before. That combination, more sales, higher prices and less time on market, points to a market absorbing listings at a pace the national numbers do not reflect.

ZIP 36576 and ZIP 36502 tell a similar story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted pending sales up 40% in 36576 and up 48.3% in 36502, both for the three months ending July 31, 2026. Supply in 36576 sat at 2.5 months. In 36502, it was 2.7 months, down 1.1 months from a year before. New listings in 36502 rose 14.3%, yet supply still fell. That means demand absorbed the new supply and then some.

Not every ZIP code reads the same way

Some ZIP codes in this market are a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 6.4 months of supply in ZIP 36542 for the three months ending July 31, 2026. The median sale price there fell 8% year over year. Days on market were 95 days, up 7 days from a year before. ZIP 36530 showed 5.3 months of supply, up 1.7 months year over year, and the median price dropped 7.9%. Those are not the same conditions as 36502 or 36527. Same Gulf Coast market, different outcomes depending on exactly where you are.

What the rate environment means here

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com noted rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Those rates slow buyers nationally. But in ZIP codes where supply is already at 2.1 or 2.7 months, the rate pressure has not stopped the market from tightening. Buyers who wait for rates to fall may find less inventory to choose from, not more.

The ZIP codes with the most pending momentum

ZIP 36535 also held firm. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 371 pending sales there for the three months ending July 31, 2026, up 15.9% year over year. Supply dropped to 3.5 months, down 1 month from the year before. The median price rose 1.4% to $324,546. Not every metric pointed up, but the direction of supply and pending sales told a tightening story. ZIP 36567 added 40.9% more closed sales year over year, with pending sales up 34.6% and prices up 8.4%.