Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Tight supply is still doing the work in this market

By Chris McClure

Real estate, Primary buy box (DOTW)

This is not a rate story. It is a supply story. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% on October 1, 2026. That number is real, and it matters for your payment. But if you are making a decision about timing, leverage or pricing in this market, the rate headline is not the number that controls your outcome. Supply is.

This is not a personality test. Are you making decisions based on what is actually moving prices and timing here, or on what the national news says about rates?

The three months ending July 31, 2026

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted supply and pending sales across every ZIP code in this market for the three months ending July 31, 2026. The numbers do not all point the same direction. That is the point. Where you own or where you are buying changes everything.

Where supply is tightest

ZIP 36527 is the tightest market in this group right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2.1 months of supply there, down 1.7 months from the same period in 2025. New listings fell 22.7% year over year. Pending sales rose 14.9%. Sellers in that ZIP are not waiting long. The median sale price reached $402,974, up 6.5% from a year before.

Where pending sales jumped the most

ZIP 36502 had the biggest pending sales move in this market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 43 pending sales there, up 48.3% from the same three months in 2025. Supply fell 36.6%. The median sale price rose 10.5% to $182,250. Nearly 1 in 3 homes, 32.6%, went under contract within two weeks of listing.

Where the market is moving slower

Not every ZIP is tight. ZIP 36530 is a different situation. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 5.3 months of supply there, up 1.7 months from a year before. Homes for sale rose 14.3%. The median days on market stretched to 115 days, 46 days longer than the same period in 2025. The median sale price dipped 7.9% to $350,000. Buyers in that ZIP have more room to negotiate.

ZIP 36542, which covers Gulf Shores, ran 6.4 months of supply. That is down 1.9 months from a year ago, which is a real improvement. But 744 homes were for sale, and the median days on market was 95 days, 7 days longer year over year. The median sale price fell 8% to $492,398. More inventory and longer days on market give buyers more options and more leverage.

What the national numbers say, and why they are not enough

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September, the highest share since October 2022. Realtor.com also counted 1.16 million active listings nationally, up year over year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Those are real numbers. They describe the country, not your street.

Local supply in ZIP 36527 is 2.1 months. Local supply in ZIP 36530 is 5.3 months. Those two ZIPs are not the same decision. The rate is the same for both buyers. The supply risk is not.

A closer look at the larger ZIPs

ZIP 36561, which covers Orange Beach, had a median sale price of $731,000, up 5.9% year over year. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 324 homes sold, up 13.7%. But supply ran 5.4 months and the median days on market was 93 days. Homes are selling, and prices are up. They are just taking longer to get there.

ZIP 36532, which covers much of Fairhope, had a median sale price of $525,000, up 9.9%. Supply was 4 months, down just 0.2 months from a year ago. Days on market held at 62, unchanged. Stable, but not tight.

ZIP 36535, which covers a large part of Foley, counted 321 homes sold, up 11.5%. Supply fell to 3.5 months, down 1 month year over year. Pending sales rose 15.9% to 371. New listings fell 8.8%. That combination, more pendings and fewer new listings, is what tightening looks like before it shows up in price.

The rate is real. So is this.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% on October 1, 2026. That shapes your monthly payment. It does not shape how many competing buyers are in your ZIP, how fast homes are going under contract, or whether a seller has leverage. Those are supply questions, and the answers are different in every ZIP in this market.

If you own in a ZIP where supply is 2.1 months and pendings are rising, your timing and pricing math looks different than if you own where supply is 5.3 months and days on market stretched 46 days longer. Both are in this market. One street can read differently from the whole ZIP code.