Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

This part of the market is tighter than the national supply picture

By Chris McClure

Real estate, Primary market

This is not a preference problem. It is a risk problem. Where you own or where you are shopping determines how much competition you face and how fast your options disappear.

The National Association of Realtors put U.S. supply at 4.9 months as of October 4, 2026. That is the highest in over ten years nationally. Some parts of this market are nowhere near that number.

The tightest spot in this market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 2.1 months of supply in ZIP 36527 for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is down 1.7 months from the same period in 2025. Inventory fell 29.2% in the same window. Pending sales rose 14.9%. Homes are being absorbed faster than new ones are arriving.

Sellers in 36527 face less competition than sellers almost anywhere in the country right now. Buyers need a cleaner plan because choices are being absorbed faster here than the national picture suggests.

Not every ZIP code reads the same way

This is not a personality test. Supply varies sharply by location, and the wrong assumption costs real money.

Are you watching a market that is tighter than you think, or one that has more supply than you expected? The answer sits in the ZIP code, not the headline.

Where supply is running above the national number

ZIP 36561 showed 5.4 months of supply, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator, for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is above the 4.9-month U.S. figure from the National Association of Realtors. Median days on market there were 93 days, up 4 days from 2025. Sellers in that ZIP face a different set of conditions than sellers in 36527.

ZIP 36530 showed 5.3 months of supply for the same period, with median days on market at 115 days. That is 46 days longer than the same period in 2025, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The median sale price dipped 7.9% year over year. Pricing discipline matters more in that environment.

What the rate environment adds to this

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.60%. Those rates shape what a buyer can qualify for and how aggressively they can move in a tight market. In a ZIP with 2.1 months of supply, a buyer who is not pre-approved and ready is at a structural disadvantage.

A few other ZIP codes worth knowing

ZIP 36502 showed 2.7 months of supply for the three months ending July 31, 2026, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Pending sales there jumped 48.3% from the same period in 2025. Nearly 1 in 3 homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 8.5 points year over year.

ZIP 36507 came in at 2.8 months of supply, down 1.6 months from 2025. Homes sold there rose 24.5% year over year. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 66 homes sold in those three months, up from the prior year.

ZIP 36526 held at 3.6 months, nearly flat from 2025. With 263 homes sold and 312 for sale, it is the most active ZIP in the count. Pending sales rose 9.2% year over year.