Published October 19, 2026 in Market Update

Orange Beach is holding demand even with more than 7% rates

By Chris McClure

Real estate, Baldwin County

Rates did not kill demand here. They changed who is buying, and that is a different problem to solve.

Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. The national story that followed was about slowdowns, price cuts, and buyers stepping back. That story is not wrong everywhere. It is just not the whole picture for Orange Beach.

This is not a personality test. Are you reading national headlines and adjusting your price, or are you reading what actually sold in your ZIP code in the last 90 days? Are you making a clear-eyed risk decision, or are you guessing?

What the Orange Beach numbers actually show

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 288 homes sold in ZIP 36561, the Orange Beach ZIP, in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 6.7% from the same three months in 2025. Rates went up. Sales went up too.

The median sale price in ZIP 36561 came in at $735,000, up 6.5% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Prices did not stall. They moved in the direction that matters to owners.

The pending sales number is the one to watch

Pending sales measure buyers who signed a contract but have not closed yet. That is the leading edge of demand. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 356 pending sales in ZIP 36561, up 22.3% from the same three months in 2025. That is not a market that froze when rates crossed 7%.

For an owner, that number means qualified buyers are still writing contracts. For a buyer, it means assuming the market slowed here because of rates is a risk assumption the data does not support.

Supply dropped. That tightened the market.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 573 homes for sale in ZIP 36561, down 17.6% from a year ago. Fewer choices for buyers tends to support prices. New listings also fell 9.2%, so the pipeline of fresh inventory is not growing fast enough to change that balance.

The national picture is a different story

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September, the highest share since October 2022. Active listings nationally grew 5.5% year over year, topping 1.16 million homes for sale. That is a buyer-friendly shift in many parts of the country.

CNBC reported that Fannie Mae forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% throughout 2027. CNBC also noted that Zillow put pending home sales nationally down 8.5% year over year in September. Those are real headwinds in markets where supply is rising and demand is soft.

Orange Beach is not that market right now. Supply fell. Sales rose. Prices rose. The risk for an owner is pricing as though the national slowdown already arrived here, when the local counts say it has not.

A few honest admissions

Homes are sitting a little longer. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows a median of 90 days on market in ZIP 36561, which is 9 days shorter than a year ago. That is a good sign. But the sale-to-list ratio came in at 96.2%, up 0.7 points, so sellers are getting close to asking price when they do sell. Only 4.5% of homes sold above list, though that share rose 2.6 points year over year.

Not every home sold fast, and not every seller got full price. Pricing still matters. The buyers who are active right now above 7% rates are qualified and deliberate. They are not going to overpay for a home that is not priced right.

One ZIP code is not one street

ZIP 36561 covers a wide range of Orange Beach, from beachfront to canal homes on Terry Cove, Bear Point, Cotton Bayou and beyond. A home on the water with a private dock reads very differently from an interior lot, even inside the same ZIP code. The numbers above describe the whole ZIP. Your street may be tighter or softer than that average.